Delivery forecasting
FreeNo sign-in requiredUnlimited useDelivery Predictability Checker
Calculate how likely you are to deliver the remaining work by the target, from your team's own delivery history.
Target probability, P50/P80/P95 completion forecasts, delivery variability and the smallest scope or timeline change that reaches a defensible confidence level.
- A probability, not a date50,000 simulated futures from your actual delivery history, not an average.
- The smallest change that worksHow much scope, or how much time, an 80% confident plan actually needs.
- Reproducible by constructionThe same numbers always return the same forecast. No AI, no randomness you cannot check.
Will you hit your delivery target?
Use recent delivery history to calculate your probability of finishing the remaining work on time, with P50, P80 and P95 forecasts and practical recovery options.
How many comparable items your team completed in each recent Sprint, oldest first. Commas, spaces, new lines or a pasted spreadsheet column all work. For example: 12, 9, 14, 8, 11, 13, 7, 12. 8 to 20+ periods gives the strongest forecast, but fewer still works.
How much is left to deliver, in work items.
Methodology
How KnownShift forecasts delivery
The KnownShift Delivery Predictability Framework, KDPF 1.0, informed by established flow-management, statistical forecasting, project-scheduling and schedule-risk practices.
This is an empirical throughput-based forecast, not a full network-based Schedule Risk Analysis. Where a complex critical-path schedule and its dependencies dominate the completion date, that analysis answers a question this one cannot.
Not sure the scope is solid enough to forecast? Scope Readiness Checker answers that first. To turn a scope into effort and a date, the Effort & Timeline Estimator does that.
How the forecast is produced
How it works
Need continuous forecasting and recovery planning?
This checker forecasts one target from history you paste in. Rolling forecasts that refresh themselves, flow analytics and dependency-aware programme simulation are where KnownShift is heading next.